Don't Jinx It

A new round of polls are coming out and the new status quo has been maintained with Labor commanding a solid lead over the Government. The quest for 16 seats, though far from over, is coming along very nicely. Presumably Kevin07, his front bench, and many prospective MPs are making plans for the upcoming succession. It's the prudent thing to do - you don't want to win government and be caught with your pants down, not having an office or a staff ready to go.

On the other hand, none of them would want to public to know that they were making such preparations. Politicians live in fear of the backlash the voters are certain to mete out on those seen to be "arrogant" or "taking the electorate for granted". The conventional wisdom, for what it's worth, would lead one to believe that unless we think the polly is afraid of us and in desperate courting mode, we'll punish them with a vote for the other guy. I don't know if there's any truth to this, but I must admit it knowing Aussies it doesn't feel outside the realm of possibility! Downer, the new Liberal enforcer, has certainly tried to use this as a weapon, telling all who would listen that Rudd is telling people in private that the election is in the bag. This appears to have worked as well as all of the Liberals' other attacks so far.

Another reason I think many people are hesitant to declare the ALP in with a shot is the idea of the "narrowing" - that is, the narrowing of the gap in the polls that is thought to occur during the campaign proper. In "Crikey's Guide to the 2007 Election" they opine that this is merely a result of the polls becoming more accurate as people make up their minds, but Possum's Pollytics does a good job of showing that the whole concept of the Narrowing is more mythological than anything else. How many people are going to fall in love with Howard again just because they know the election has gone from probably being on the 24th of November, to a certainty?

Finally, I think a lot of it comes down to the childhood superstition of the Jinx. Expressing optimism at some upcoming good fortune, people instinctively feel, may prevent it coming to pass. In China, at least in the past, one would never speak openly about how well a child was doing lest mischievous spirits overhear and visit some illness on the unfortunate babe. Perhaps we just think the universe doesn't like a braggart. Certainly I think that many in the ALP have been in opposition too long and just don't want to get their hopes up.

In any case, at the risk of jinxing it, I think we have the best chance in a decade of crowbarring the dessicated coconut off his seat, and I for one am going to maintain a sunny and optimistic attitude to the brave new Labor world that is coming. Touch wood.